The Numbers Game Behind Manchester City’s Premier League Dominance
These three numbers are the secret formula behind Manchester City’s unprecedented success in the Premier League, securing them four consecutive titles. While Pep Guardiola’s side dazzles on the pitch with their artistry and skill, a new book, The Blueprint, reveals how a carefully calculated, data-driven masterplan is the real engine behind their dominance.
The book highlights that City’s performance analysts have determined 87 points as the benchmark for winning the league, based on recent seasons. To hit that target, they estimate the team needs at least 27 wins, leaving room for six draws and five defeats. The entire operation revolves around hitting these precise numbers.
At the heart of this strategy is a modern football statistic known as expected goals, or xG, which evaluates the quality of scoring opportunities. Each shot is assigned a probability score between 0.01 and 0.99, depending on how likely it is to result in a goal. A 0.01 xG chance means the shot is expected to score just 1% of the time, while a 0.99 shot is almost a guaranteed goal.
For instance, Crystal Palace’s 16 shots against Nottingham Forest on Monday night might sound like a solid effort, but a total xG of just 0.9 reveals that the quality of their chances was poor, with each shot having only about a 5.6% chance of hitting the back of the net.
City’s analysts discovered that achieving a net xG (xG created minus xG conceded) of 1.4 across the season was the key to hitting their magic number of 27 wins. Guardiola and his staff use this data to meticulously plan every match, dissecting each game into six key phases and analyzing how each player’s contribution affects the team’s net xG.
For example, choosing Rico Lewis as a right-back might boost City’s attacking output in a particular game, but selecting Kyle Walker could be a better overall choice based on the opponent’s strengths and weaknesses.
This attention to detail has brought strikingly consistent results. Over the past four seasons, City has averaged net xG scores of 1.2, 1.7, 1.2, and 1.3 per match, leading to win totals of 27, 28, 29, and 28 games respectively. Their points tallies of 86, 93, 89, and 91 have secured them four straight Premier League titles, making them the first club in English football history to achieve this feat.
While having world-class players and one of the greatest managers in the game certainly helps, City’s embrace of data-driven tactics has transformed them into an unstoppable force. Unlike clubs like Brighton or Brentford, who are often praised for their reliance on analytics, City operates in a more understated yet incredibly effective way, ensuring they rarely stumble in the race for silverware.
The Blueprint: Inside Manchester City and the Guardiola Project by Simon Bajkowski delves deep into the meticulous planning behind City’s success and is available in hardback, eBook, and Audiobook formats.
