Live from Week 17: Lions vs. 49ers – A Tale of Two Seasons
Monday night’s clash between Detroit and San Francisco was supposed to be a blockbuster Week 17 matchup: a battle for the NFC’s top seed and a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship in Santa Clara. While it is indeed a rematch of that epic title game, the two teams find themselves on vastly different trajectories this season.
The 49ers have been eliminated from playoff contention, a stark contrast to the Lions, who sit at 13-2, with only two losses to Tampa Bay and Buffalo. With the Vikings locked in a tight divisional race, Minnesota fans will be rooting hard for an unlikely 49ers upset, but Detroit enters as the heavy favorite—and for good reason.
Here’s a closer look at how these two teams compare heading into this pivotal game.
Trading Places
Last season, the 49ers were an offensive powerhouse. Christian McCaffrey earned Offensive Player of the Year honors, Brock Purdy was an MVP candidate, and Brandon Aiyuk emerged as a premier wide receiver. Scoring seemed effortless for San Francisco.
Meanwhile, the Lions were an up-and-coming offensive unit under play-caller Ben Johnson, powered by a core that included David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and rookie tight end Sam LaPorta.
Fast forward to 2024, and the roles have reversed. The numbers highlight a dramatic shift in offensive efficiency between the two teams:
2023 Offensive EPA/Play Rankings:
- 49ers: 0.15 EPA/Play, 49.8% Success Rate, 0.04 EPA/Rush, 0.28 EPA/Pass (1st in NFL)
- Lions: 0.05 EPA/Play, 45.2% Success Rate, -0.04 EPA/Rush, 0.12 EPA/Pass (6th in NFL)
2024 Offensive EPA/Play Rankings:
- Lions: 0.15 EPA/Play, 49% Success Rate, 0.02 EPA/Rush, 0.28 EPA/Pass (3rd in NFL)
- 49ers: 0.05 EPA/Play, 44.6% Success Rate, -0.01 EPA/Rush, 0.1 EPA/Pass (11th in NFL)
The 49ers, once the gold standard, now trail the Lions, who have surged to the top three in efficiency. The Lions’ 0.15 EPA/Play rate would have been league-best last year but now ranks behind Baltimore and Buffalo.
The Injury Factor
Both teams have had to navigate key injuries. The 49ers, in particular, have struggled to maintain consistency amid a series of setbacks. However, Detroit has also faced its challenges, including the loss of defensive star Aidan Hutchinson.
Despite Hutchinson’s absence, the Lions’ defense has taken a massive leap under coordinator Aaron Glenn, fueled by smart drafting and secondary upgrades. Detroit has climbed nearly 15 spots in defensive efficiency:
2023 Defensive EPA/Play Rankings:
- Lions: -0.03 EPA/Play, 42.5% Success Rate, -0.12 EPA/Rush, 0.02 EPA/Pass (18th in NFL)
2024 Defensive EPA/Play Rankings:
- Lions: -0.07 EPA/Play, 41.1% Success Rate, -0.05 EPA/Rush, -0.09 EPA/Pass (5th in NFL)
While their run defense has regressed slightly, the Lions’ pass defense has significantly improved, making Glenn and Johnson two of the hottest head coaching candidates heading into the offseason.
Scoring Margins: A Stark Contrast
In 2023, the 49ers ranked third in the NFL in average scoring margin at +9.8, trailing only Baltimore and Dallas. The Lions, meanwhile, finished eighth with a +3.6 margin.
But in 2024, the Lions have exploded offensively, producing multiple 40- and 50-point games. Their average scoring margin of +12.9 is the best in the league, dwarfing second-place Buffalo’s +9.2.
On the other hand, the 49ers have plummeted to 17th, with a negative scoring margin of -1.2. The disparity is even more pronounced on the road, where the 49ers sit at -8.4, while Detroit boasts an imposing +12.4 margin at home.
What to Watch For
While the Lions are heavy favorites, this matchup still offers intrigue. Can the 49ers muster a spoiler performance, or will Detroit continue its dominant march into the postseason?
One thing is clear: this game underscores how drastically fortunes can shift in the NFL, as two teams that once stood shoulder-to-shoulder have traded places in spectacular fashion.
