Surprise Is Over: Conference Play, Late-Game Blunders and Why College Basketball Is About to Get Wild

In this week’s edition of Monday Morning Musings, the focus shifts to scouting adjustments, the start of conference play and the importance of fundamentals.

It’s been two weeks since the last installment, so there’s plenty to catch up on.

What I didn’t like: Injuries, free throws, the ACC
What I’m unsure about: The Big Ten
What I liked: Top-10 rivalry games, still Audi Crooks, and double-overtime thrillers

I know you

In the modern era of the transfer portal and NIL, roster turnover has become the norm in college basketball. Because of that, even coaches and media members often head into a season without a clear understanding of what teams truly are.

Now that the season is more than a month old and most teams have played 10 to 12 games, that uncertainty is fading. Coaches have accumulated enough film to break down opponents and identify their weaknesses.

That trend showed up clearly over the weekend. UConn dominated No. 16 Southern Cal 79-51 at the Galen Center, while No. 15 Kentucky labored through a 77-69 win over Belmont.

Southern Cal, which climbed as high as No. 8, and Kentucky, which breezed through its early schedule, aren’t necessarily declining. However, both programs experienced heavy offseason turnover, leaving little clarity about what they would look like entering the year. For the first few weeks, they benefited from the element of surprise.

Now, with that advantage gone, opponents are better equipped to exploit flaws.

Conference play beckons

Conference schedules are already underway in the Big Ten and ACC, while the Big 12 joins the mix next weekend.

For many teams, that signals a significant step up in competition. Programs that padded their records against softer schedules may soon be exposed. At the same time, opportunities to build an out-of-conference résumé are rapidly disappearing.

That reality isn’t as concerning in the SEC, Big Ten or Big 12, where multiple ranked teams ensure plenty of high-quality matchups. The ACC, however, faces a different problem. Quad 1 opportunities will be limited, and several Quad 4 teams are weighing down the league’s overall strength of schedule.

Fundamentals

Late-game execution — or the lack of it — once again stole the spotlight.

Last Sunday, Minnesota held a five-point lead with 19 seconds left in overtime and was up nine with 44 seconds remaining in the second overtime. Maryland still emerged victorious, largely due to Minnesota’s inability to complete simple passes.

This Sunday, North Carolina was seconds away from earning its first ranked win of the season, leading Louisville 66-65 with less than a second left. A failed inbounds play following a timeout and missed free throws opened the door for Louisville, which went on to win 76-66 in overtime. The Cardinals nearly gave the game away themselves with a poor pass, but North Carolina couldn’t take advantage.

South Carolina flirted with a similar fate against Louisville, nearly letting the game slip away due to struggles inbounding the ball.

It’s remarkable how a 40-minute — or even 50-minute — battle can hinge on a handful of seconds and the execution of basic fundamentals, the very things these players are typically able to do “in their sleep.”

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