What the National Media Really Thinks About South Carolina’s Championship Chances
COLUMBIA, S.C. — The bracket is set. The games begin today. And across every major national outlet covering the 2026 NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament, one thing is clear: virtually everyone expects South Carolina to reach the Final Four.
What happens after that is where the opinions diverge — and where the most revealing analysis lives.
The Consensus: Final Four, Then a UConn Wall
Of the 20 national media members surveyed across The Athletic, CBS, ESPN, NCAA.com, and USA Today, an overwhelming majority — 18 of 20 — have South Carolina reaching the Final Four. That near-unanimity speaks to the respect the Gamecocks command entering the tournament as the No. 4 overall seed at 31-3, led by consensus All-American Joyce Edwards and SEC Defensive Player of the Year Raven Johnson.
But the consensus shifts dramatically once the bracket narrows to four teams. The dominant national narrative places South Carolina on a collision course with UConn in the national semifinals — and in that matchup, the majority of pickers side with the Huskies.
Of the 14 media members who made specific Final Four and championship game picks, 11 have South Carolina losing to UConn in the semifinals. That result — a fourth-place finish — represents the modal prediction for the Gamecocks from the national press corps. It is, in many ways, the polite way of saying: South Carolina is elite, but UConn is the team everyone expects to be cutting down the nets.
The Believers: Three Picks to Win It All
Not everyone is conceding the national championship to UConn. Three media members bucked the majority narrative and picked South Carolina to win the whole thing.
Jerry Brewer of The Athletic is the most bullish, projecting a path of South Carolina defeating Louisville in the semifinals before beating UCLA in the national championship. His pick stands apart from the field — not just because he has South Carolina winning, but because he doesn’t even route them through a UConn matchup on the way there.
Carolyn Peck of ESPN also picked South Carolina as national champion, with a Final Four that includes UConn, LSU, Texas, and the Gamecocks. Peck — a former college head coach who won a national championship herself — carries analytical credibility that makes her South Carolina pick notable rather than contrarian.
Mitchell Northam of USA Today offers perhaps the most intriguing projection: South Carolina reaching the national championship game before falling to UCLA. His path for the Gamecocks runs through Clemson, Oklahoma, Iowa, and UConn — meaning he has South Carolina beating UConn in the Final Four before ultimately falling short of the title.
The Predicted Paths: Who South Carolina Will Have to Beat
Among those who mapped specific regional paths for the Gamecocks, the second-round matchup is the first point of divergence. Several pickers have South Carolina defeating Clemson in the second round, while others project a rematch with Southern Cal. Both outcomes are plausible given the bracket construction.
The regional picture comes into clearer focus in the Elite Eight, where Oklahoma and Iowa appear most frequently as projected opponents. From there, the majority of projected paths lead through UConn in the national semifinals — a rematch of the 2025 national championship game that UConn won 82-59 in Tampa.
That rematch narrative is doing significant work in how the national media is constructing their brackets. The Huskies, led by Sarah Strong and Azzi Fudd, are the consensus national champion pick — appearing on 12 of the 20 completed brackets as the team cutting down the nets. UCLA is the second-most popular champion pick with three selections, followed by South Carolina with two and Texas with two.
What the Numbers Actually Say
The national media’s collective projection — South Carolina to the Final Four, likely eliminated by UConn — deserves some scrutiny before being accepted as settled wisdom.
This is a South Carolina team that went 31-3 during the regular season, led the nation in points per possession, ranks third nationally in field goal percentage at 50.7 percent, and posted 12 wins over ranked opponents — third-most in the country. Seven of those ranked wins came away from home. The Gamecocks are 21-2 in NCAA Tournament games at Colonial Life Arena, where they will host the first two rounds.
The UConn narrative is understandable. The Huskies eliminated South Carolina in last year’s title game, and the rematch carries enormous psychological weight. But the Gamecocks are a demonstrably different team in 2026 — more experienced, more efficient, and arguably deeper than the group that lost in Tampa.
The national media sees South Carolina as the clear No. 2 team in the country. Whether that translates into another national championship or another semifinal exit will be determined not by projections, but by what happens on the floor.
The Bottom Line
Eighteen of 20 national media members have South Carolina reaching the Final Four. Two picks have them winning the national championship outright. One has them reaching the title game. The vast majority see them falling to UConn in the semifinals.
For a program that has made a habit of exceeding expectations while simultaneously meeting the highest standards, the national media’s projection is simultaneously respectful and limiting. South Carolina is good enough to reach the Final Four in virtually every credible scenario. Whether they’re good enough to go further is the question the tournament will answer.
Dawn Staley’s program has spent the better part of a decade proving the doubters wrong. The bracket opens today. The case will be made on the court.
