South Carolina Ranked No. 11 in ESPN FPI, Faces Brutal 2025 Schedule
Shane Beamer and the South Carolina Gamecocks enter the 2025 season sitting at No. 11 in ESPN’s latest Football Power Index (FPI) rankings.
According to the projections, USC is expected to finish 8-4 this fall and carries a 3.6% chance to win the SEC title. The Gamecocks also hold a 36.3% shot at reaching the College Football Playoff, a 5.3% chance of making the national championship game, and a 2.1% chance of winning it all.
That path won’t be easy. ESPN ranks South Carolina’s 2025 slate as the seventh-toughest schedule in college football. Ten of the Gamecocks’ opponents are inside the FPI Top 50, with seven in the Top 25 and three cracking the Top 10.
Here’s a look at USC’s schedule, ranked from least to most difficult based on FPI:
No. 12 – vs. South Carolina State (Sept. 6)
FPI rating: N/A
FCS opponents aren’t factored into ESPN’s FPI, but S.C. State still deserves mention. Head coach Chennis Berry’s Bulldogs are the reigning MEAC champions and preseason favorites to win the league again.
No. 11 – vs. Coastal Carolina (Nov. 22)
FPI rating: -7.5, No. 101
The Chanticleers rank as USC’s weakest FBS opponent. They’re projected to go 5-7 and have just a 0.1% chance to reach the CFP.
No. 10 – vs. Vanderbilt (Sept. 13)
FPI rating: 4.4, No. 49
Vandy sneaks into the Top 50 but is still predicted to finish 5-7. Their CFP hopes are slim, with only a 1.4% chance.
No. 9 – vs. Kentucky (Sept. 27)
FPI rating: 5.8, No. 43
The Wildcats, South Carolina’s final opponent before the bye week, also project for a 5-7 finish. Kentucky carries just a 0.1% chance of winning the SEC.
No. 8 – vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta, Aug. 31)
FPI rating: 8.1, No. 31
USC’s opener at Mercedes-Benz Stadium is no cakewalk. Virginia Tech is pegged for an 8-4 record, with a 10.4% playoff chance and 8.9% shot at winning the ACC.
No. 7 – at Missouri (Sept. 20)
FPI rating: 10.4, No. 23
Missouri is expected to go 7-5, but the Tigers hold an 11.8% chance of making the CFP despite slim SEC title hopes (0.8%).
No. 6 – vs. Oklahoma (Oct. 18)
FPI rating: 10.09, No. 20
The Sooners project to finish 6-6, yet still have a 13.6% chance of sneaking into the CFP.
No. 5 – vs. Clemson (Nov. 29)
FPI rating: 13.7, No. 16
The annual rivalry game will again be massive. Clemson is forecasted for a 9-3 season, leading the ACC race with a 31.8% title chance and 38.2% playoff probability.
No. 4 – at LSU (Oct. 11)
FPI rating: 14.8, No. 12
Right behind South Carolina in the rankings, LSU is also projected to go 8-4. The Tigers have a 32.8% CFP chance and a 1.7% shot at a national title.
No. 3 – at Ole Miss (Nov. 1)
FPI rating: 15.2, No. 10
Ole Miss sits just ahead of USC, predicted at 9-4. The Rebels hold a 35.8% playoff chance and 2.1% shot at winning it all.
No. 2 – at Texas A&M (Nov. 15)
FPI rating: 15.5, No. 9
The Aggies are projected to go 8-4 and boast a 38.8% CFP chance, along with a 4.1% chance to win the SEC.
No. 1 – vs. Alabama (Oct. 25)
FPI rating: 20.7, No. 3
The toughest matchup on the schedule comes against Nick Saban’s successor and the Crimson Tide. Alabama is predicted to go 10-3, with a staggering 72.1% chance to make the Playoff and an 11.3% shot to win the national championship — the highest of any USC opponent.
With the gauntlet awaiting, South Carolina’s push for the College Football Playoff will be tested week after week. Beamer’s squad has the talent, but the margin for error is razor thin.
