The NCAA Tournament bracket dropped Sunday night, and Columbia, South Carolina is set to host a fascinating five-team collection this weekend — one powerhouse, two mid-major Cinderellas, and two teams trying to ride late-season momentum into March magic. Here’s everything you need to know.
FIRST FOUR
#16 Southern Jaguars (19-13, 12-6 SWAC) | NET: 215
Odds: -2.5 vs. Samford
Southern arrives in Columbia as perhaps the most battle-tested #16 seed in this tournament field. The Jaguars built what was statistically the country’s best non-conference strength of schedule — and they didn’t do it by accident. Outside of two home games against NAIA opponents, Southern took every non-conference game on the road against Power 4 programs, collecting road wins at Arizona and Houston along the way.
That’s a deliberate program-building philosophy, and it shows. The grind of playing elite competition in hostile environments translated directly into SWAC dominance — Southern’s players didn’t just survive those games, they grew from them.
Offensively, second-team All-SWAC honoree DeMya Porter anchors the attack, averaging 9.7 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. But Southern’s real strength may be structural: eight players average at least 17 minutes per game, giving head coach a deep rotation that stays fresh and allows the Jaguars to apply sustained defensive pressure and force turnovers in a way that shallower rosters simply cannot. For a #16 seed, that kind of depth is unusual — and dangerous.
This will be Southern’s 8th NCAA Tournament appearance, and they come in with recent postseason pedigree after defeating UC San Diego in last season’s First Four. They know what this moment feels like.
#16 Samford Bulldogs (16-18, 6-8 SoCon) | NET: 279
Odds: +2.5 vs. Southern
On paper, Samford has no business being here. A 16-18 record. A sixth-place finish in the Southern Conference. A NET ranking of 279. By almost every conventional metric, the Bulldogs are the weakest team in this Columbia field — and yet, here they are, and their path to the tournament is one of the better stories in women’s basketball this March.
Samford didn’t earn an at-large bid. They took the SoCon’s automatic berth the hard way, knocking off #3 Wofford, #2 ETSU, and #1 Chattanooga on consecutive days in the conference tournament. Three games, three upsets, one trip to the Big Dance for the first time since 2012. That kind of tournament performance — beating the three best teams in your league back-to-back-to-back — requires genuine grit, and it deserves genuine respect.
The future also looks bright. Freshman Francie Morris, named SoCon Sixth Woman of the Year, averaged 8.4 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 1.9 assists, earning a spot on the All-Freshman team alongside fellow rookie Kaylee Yarbrough, who led the Bulldogs in scoring at 12.2 points per game. Two freshmen driving your best tournament run in over a decade is the kind of foundation programs build on.
Samford has never won an NCAA Tournament game in three appearances. Given the matchup against a deeper, more experienced Southern squad, this weekend won’t be easy — but nobody expected them to be here at all.
FIRST ROUND
#1 South Carolina Gamecocks (31-3, 15-1 SEC) | NET: 3
NCAA Tournament history: 2017, 2022, 2024 National Champions | 7 Final Fours | 22nd Tournament
There isn’t much left to say about South Carolina that hasn’t already been said, but the numbers still demand acknowledgment. Three national championships. Seven Final Fours. Five consecutive Final Four appearances with two titles and a runner-up finish in that stretch. Dawn Staley has built something in Columbia that goes beyond dynasty — it’s a standard.
This year’s team is loaded at every position. All five starters earned first or second-team All-SEC recognition, a testament to how complete this roster is from top to bottom. Joyce Edwards leads the way as an All-American, while Raven Johnson took home SEC Defensive Player of the Year honors — a fitting award for a program that has long defined itself through defensive intensity.
At 31-3 with a NET of 3, South Carolina doesn’t just look like the best team in this regional — they look like one of the two or three best teams in the country. Any opponent drawing them in Columbia faces a brutal assignment.
#8 Clemson Tigers (21-11, 11-7 ACC) | NET: 41
Odds: +6.5 vs. Southern Cal
Clemson’s selection raises eyebrows — the Tigers have managed just one NCAA Tournament win since 2001 across 17 appearances — but the team that showed up in late February and March looked genuinely dangerous. Clemson won seven of their final ten regular-season games, including impressive victories over Notre Dame and Duke, suggesting a squad that figured something out when it mattered most.
The offensive engine is Mia Moore, one of the most complete players in the ACC, averaging 13.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game on her way to second-team All-ACC honors. Alongside her, Rusne Augustinaite gives Clemson a legitimate spacing threat, shooting 42.3% from three and averaging 10.9 points per game. That floor-spacing from Augustinaite opens the court for Moore to operate and creates real problems for defenses trying to take away multiple options.
The question for Clemson is whether the late-season momentum is real or a mirage. Their tournament history suggests skepticism is warranted. But as a team playing its best basketball right now, with shooting that can get hot in a hurry, they’re a difficult out.
#9 Southern Cal Trojans (17-13, 9-9 Big Ten) | NET: 22
Odds: -6.5 vs. Clemson
Southern Cal’s story this season is really the story of Jazzy Davidson. The freshman leads the Trojans in points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals — a five-category statistical sweep that makes her the only Division I player to accomplish that feat this season. Davidson is, by any measure, one of the most remarkable freshmen in the country.
She almost had to be. The Trojans spent the entire season managing the fallout from losing Juju Watkins to injury during last season’s NCAA Tournament, and their 9-9 Big Ten record tells the story of a team that never found consistent depth around its star. When one player leads your team in all five major statistical categories, it reveals as much about the roster’s limitations as it does about that player’s brilliance. You don’t finish .500 in conference play with a generational talent unless there are real structural problems elsewhere.
That fragility — over-reliance on massive individual performances to stay afloat — is exactly why USC is playing in the 8/9 game rather than earning a top seed despite a NET ranking of 22. The Trojans have the ingredients to beat anyone in the field on a given night. They also have the inconsistency to lose to anyone. That tension makes them one of the most intriguing and unpredictable teams in Columbia this weekend.
The First Four games tip off Thursday, with First Round action to follow Friday and Sunday in Columbia.
