The road to the College Football Playoff looks wide open for No. 4 Clemson—at least on paper. ESPN’s analytics models favor the Tigers in 11 of their 12 regular-season matchups. But there’s one glaring exception, and it’s the game that matters most in the Palmetto State.
According to the data, Clemson is projected to fall to bitter rival South Carolina in Columbia on November 29, a forecast that immediately raises eyebrows across college football.
A Rivalry Red Flag
Despite oddsmakers opening with Clemson as a four-point favorite, ESPN’s analytics flip the script, giving Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks a 60.4% chance to win the heated rivalry game. It’s the only contest on the Tigers’ schedule where the computers don’t side with Dabo Swinney’s team—marking the season finale as a massive potential landmine.
Opening Test Against LSU
Clemson won’t have time to look ahead, though. Their season begins with a heavyweight clash against No. 9 LSU. The matchup is essentially a toss-up, with the analytics granting Clemson just a slight edge at 53.8% to win.
Other notable challenges include home-field battles with SMU (64.3% win probability) and road trips to Louisville (64.5%) and Georgia Tech (65.1%). Surprisingly, ESPN’s models predict smooth sailing in traditionally tough showdowns, most notably giving Clemson an 87.1% chance to handle Florida State in Death Valley.
Analytics Paint the Picture
Overall, ESPN ranks Clemson No. 10 in SP+ and No. 16 in the FPI, suggesting the Tigers are very good but not untouchable. The numbers highlight two crucial hurdles: surviving the coin-flip opener against LSU and avoiding a devastating stumble in Columbia to close the regular season.
ESPN Analytics: Clemson’s 2025 Schedule Outlook (Win %)
- vs. LSU: 53.8%
- vs. Troy: 93.9%
- at Georgia Tech: 65.1%
- vs. Syracuse: 87.0%
- at North Carolina: 78.1%
- at Boston College: 73.4%
- vs. SMU: 64.3%
- vs. Duke: 79.7%
- vs. Florida State: 87.1%
- at Louisville: 64.5%
- vs. Furman: 99.0%
- at South Carolina: 39.6%
With the Tigers favored almost everywhere else, ESPN’s models suggest that the Palmetto Bowl may decide more than just state bragging rights—it could make or break Clemson’s playoff hopes.
