South Carolina Won the SEC by Two Games — So Why Does ESPN Think Texas Is More Likely to Win the Tournament?
GREENVILLE, S.C. — South Carolina women’s basketball did everything a program could reasonably do to assert dominance over the SEC this season. The Gamecocks won the regular season championship by two full games, posted the conference’s best overall record, led the SEC in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and saw all five of their starters earn All-SEC honors — tying the conference’s all-time record for single-season all-conference selections from one program. No other team in the league had more than two representatives on the All-SEC squad.
And yet, according to ESPN, South Carolina is not the favorite to win the SEC Tournament.
The network projects the Texas Longhorns as the most likely tournament champion at 39%, with the Gamecocks slotted second at 36%. LSU sits third at 20%, Vanderbilt fourth at 3%, and the remaining 12 teams in the field are collectively afforded a 2% chance of victory — a figure that borders on dismissive.
It is, by any objective measure, a curious projection.
The Case Against the Projection
The numbers that ESPN’s model appears to be discounting are not marginal. They are comprehensive. South Carolina didn’t edge Texas in the SEC standings — they separated themselves by two full games in one of the most competitive women’s basketball conferences in the country. The Gamecocks did lose to Texas in a non-conference game back in November, but they settled that account when it mattered most, beating the Longhorns in SEC play. They also won on the road at LSU and handled Vanderbilt by a wide margin.
Head-to-head results, efficiency metrics, depth of All-SEC representation — by virtually every measurable standard, South Carolina is the superior team entering this weekend. The gap between the Gamecocks and the field is not a matter of perception. It is documented across an entire season of evidence.
Which raises a legitimate question about what ESPN’s model is actually measuring. Tournament probability projections of this kind often lean heavily on pace of play, stylistic matchup data, and bracket-path variance — factors that can sometimes obscure straightforward measures of team quality. The 3% gap between South Carolina and Texas may reflect the volatility inherent in single-elimination basketball more than any genuine belief that the Longhorns are the better program right now.
The Home Court Factor ESPN May Be Underweighting
Perhaps the most glaring omission from ESPN’s calculus is geography. The SEC Tournament is being held at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina — effectively a home game for Dawn Staley’s program. The Gamecocks have won six of the last seven SEC Tournaments held at that venue, a track record that represents one of the most dominant site-specific performances in conference tournament history.
Tournament basketball is often decided by margins — a crowd energizing a defense, a hostile environment rattling an opponent’s shooter, a team feeding off the energy of a building that is overwhelmingly in their corner. South Carolina will have all of that working in their favor this weekend, and none of it shows up cleanly in a probability model built on efficiency ratings and season-long statistics.
The combination of the Gamecocks’ on-court dominance and their structural advantage in Greenville makes the Texas-favored projection not just surprising, but genuinely difficult to defend.
The Path Through the Bracket
South Carolina earned a double-bye in the SEC Tournament, meaning they will not take the court until Friday — a significant rest and preparation advantage over teams that must play Wednesday and Thursday games before the quarterfinals even begin.
The Gamecocks open against No. 9 seed Kentucky on Friday at noon at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. The Wildcats present a known quantity for South Carolina — a program they are deeply familiar with and have handled successfully in recent meetings. While no game in March should be taken lightly, the quarterfinal matchup represents the most favorable possible opening draw for a team of South Carolina’s caliber.
A victory on Friday would send the Gamecocks to the Saturday semifinals at 4:30 p.m., where LSU or Oklahoma would likely await. The Tigers are the third-most favored team in ESPN’s own projections, which makes a potential South Carolina-LSU semifinal the most compelling potential storyline of the weekend — a rematch of a regular season road game the Gamecocks already won.
Should South Carolina advance to Sunday’s 3 p.m. championship game, Vanderbilt and Texas — the two highest seeds on the opposite side of the bracket — are the most likely finalists from that half of the draw. A championship game rematch against Texas would carry significant weight given the history between the two programs this season, and would give South Carolina the opportunity to close the book on the one blemish — that November non-conference loss — in the most definitive way possible.
What This Weekend Is Really About
For South Carolina, the SEC Tournament is not simply about adding another trophy to an already overflowing case. It is about momentum, health, and competitive sharpness heading into what matters most — the NCAA Tournament, now just days away.
Dawn Staley’s program has won six of the last seven SEC Tournaments in Greenville. They have dominated this conference for over a decade. They enter this weekend as the most complete team in the SEC by virtually every measure. ESPN’s projection may assign Texas a 3% edge in probability, but the evidence accumulated across an entire season tells a different story.
The bracket opens Friday. South Carolina will be ready — and the crowd at Bon Secours Wellness Arena will make sure of it.
South Carolina’s SEC Tournament Schedule:
Quarterfinals — Friday, March 6: No. 1 South Carolina vs. No. 9 Kentucky, Noon, ESPN/ESPN App, Bon Secours Wellness Arena, Greenville, S.C.
Semifinals — Saturday, March 7: Winner advances to face LSU or Oklahoma, 4:30 p.m., ESPN2/ESPN App
SEC Tournament Final — Sunday, March 8: Championship game, 3 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App
Source: On3
