PHOENIX — When South Carolina and UConn tip off Friday night at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN, it will be more than a Final Four semifinal. It will be a reckoning.
The Huskies beat the Gamecocks 82-59 in last year’s national championship game — Dawn Staley’s first-ever loss on college basketball’s biggest stage. Now, with a perfect 38-0 record and history in their sights, UConn stands between South Carolina and a third consecutive title game appearance. The Gamecocks arrive at 35-3, battle-tested, and with a roster that looks meaningfully different from the one that absorbed that Tampa beating twelve months ago.
The question is whether the differences are enough.
The Matchups That Will Decide the Game
Azzi Fudd vs. South Carolina’s Perimeter Defense
There may be no more dangerous shooter in women’s college basketball than Azzi Fudd. The 5-foot-11 guard carries one of the quickest releases in the country, averages 17.5 points on 48.9% shooting, and has already demonstrated she can carve up South Carolina’s defense at will. She scored 28 points in the regular season meeting last year and followed it with 24 points, five rebounds, and three steals in the championship game. South Carolina had no answer for her in either contest.
Like Raven Johnson, Fudd took a medical redshirt after a knee injury, and this is her fifth collegiate season. The experience she brings — the composure, the shot-making under pressure, the understanding of big moments — makes her UConn’s most dangerous weapon in a close game.
South Carolina’s response will likely be a rotating committee: Johnson, senior Ta’Niya Latson, and freshman Agot Makeer. That last name is significant. Makeer’s defensive performance against TCU star Olivia Miles in the Elite Eight allowed Johnson to conserve energy and focus attention elsewhere. If Makeer can impose similar pressure on Fudd — disrupting her rhythm, forcing her off her spots — it could change the entire texture of UConn’s offense.
Sarah Strong vs. Joyce Edwards — The Game Within the Game
The National Player of the Year conversation this season has centered largely on two names: UConn’s Sarah Strong and Vanderbilt’s Mikayla Blakes. After watching Strong’s numbers — 18.6 points, 7.6 rebounds, 3.4 steals, and 1.6 blocks per game, while shooting an extraordinary 59.4% from the floor and 40.4% from three — the debate feels somewhat academic. She is as complete a player as the sport has produced in years.
Edwards has drawn the Strong assignment in both previous meetings, and the results were sobering. Strong posted 24 points and 15 rebounds in last year’s title game, then followed with 16 points and 13 rebounds in their other matchup. Against virtually any defender, those are credible performances. Against Edwards specifically, they represent a matchup South Carolina must solve.
What offers genuine hope is the version of Edwards that has shown up in this tournament. Her defense has been noticeably sharper — more disciplined, more physical, more capable of disrupting high-usage players. Staley will need that tournament version of Edwards to show up for forty minutes in Phoenix.
The Madina Okot Factor
Perhaps the most structurally significant variable in this matchup is one that did not exist last year. When UConn beat South Carolina in Tampa, Staley was operating without a true center. The last time she had one, the Gamecocks beat UConn. That context matters.
At 6-foot-6, Okot gives South Carolina a presence in the paint that fundamentally alters the geometry of the game. She will match up directly against UConn sophomore Jana El Alfy, a 6-foot-5 reserve who gave the Huskies useful interior help in both matchups last season. But Okot’s impact goes beyond the physical confrontation in the post. When she is converting around the basket and stretching the defense with her three-point shooting, she creates driving lanes and open looks for everyone else on the floor. South Carolina’s offense becomes genuinely harder to defend.
The question of whether Okot will still be playing college basketball next season remains unresolved — South Carolina is appealing to the NCAA for an additional year of eligibility — but none of that matters until after Friday night. Right now, she is one of the most important players in this tournament.
By the Numbers
| Stat | UConn | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 38-0 | 35-3 |
| FG% | 52.0% (1st) | 50.9% (3rd) |
| Opponent FG% | 33.4% (1st) | 34.7% (6th) |
The statistical portrait of this game is genuinely striking. These are the two best shooting teams and the two best defensive teams in the country meeting on a neutral floor. Efficiency will be at a premium, turnovers will be punishing, and the team that can manufacture clean looks in the half-court while limiting the other’s best opportunities will likely control the game’s pace and outcome.
Staley vs. Auriemma — A Rivalry Reframed
Geno Auriemma holds a 10-5 all-time edge over Dawn Staley, but the last several years of that series tell a different story. Before 2020, Staley had never beaten Auriemma. Then South Carolina won four straight from 2021 to 2024 — and Staley became the first coach to beat Auriemma in a national championship game.
UConn reclaimed the title last year, restoring some of the rivalry’s historical balance. But this series has evolved from a mismatch into a genuine clash between equals, two Hall of Fame coaches who understand each other’s systems as well as anyone in the sport. Auriemma leads the all-time series at 10-5, but on neutral courts they are tied 2-2 — and South Carolina beat UConn in Columbia in 2024 as part of their undefeated national championship season.
The coaching chess match Friday night will be as compelling as anything happening on the floor.
Prediction: South Carolina 66, UConn 60
South Carolina wins this game because they are a fundamentally different team than the one that lost in Tampa. The additions of Madina Okot, Ta’Niya Latson, and Agot Makeer, combined with career years from Joyce Edwards, Raven Johnson, and Tessa Johnson, give Staley a depth of scoring options she simply did not have last spring. UConn remains the most complete team in the country and will make the Gamecocks earn every single possession. But South Carolina has more ways to hurt you now — and on a night when redemption is the only thing on their mind, that may be just enough.
