COLUMBIA, S.C. — The bracket is set. The path is visible. And for Dawn Staley’s South Carolina Gamecocks, the destination — a sixth consecutive Final Four and a fourth national championship — is as clear as it has been at the start of any tournament run in recent memory. The question, as always in March, is not what the Gamecocks are capable of. It is who stands in the way.
Here is a complete breakdown of every potential opponent, every meaningful storyline, and every upset scenario between Colonial Life Arena on March 21 and Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix on April 5.
First Round: Southern or Samford — The Formality With Stakes
South Carolina opens against the survivor of the First Four play-in game between No. 16 seeds Southern and Samford on March 19. The first-round game tips off March 21 at 1 p.m. ET on ABC at Colonial Life Arena.
On paper, this is the most favorable draw the bracket can produce for a No. 1 seed. In practice, it is a game that requires the Gamecocks to establish their defensive identity, get Joyce Edwards into a rhythm, and send a message about what this team looks like heading into the second round. South Carolina defeated Samford 87-37 earlier this season and has the personnel to contain any First Four survivor. The outcome here is not in serious doubt. The manner of it matters.
Second Round: Clemson or Southern Cal — Familiar Faces, Elevated Stakes
South Carolina has already played both potential second-round opponents this season. The Gamecocks beat Clemson 65-37 on November 11th and Southern Cal 69-52 on November 15th — back-to-back early-season results that provide a reference point without telling the complete story of either program’s current form.
Clemson, at 21-11, is a program playing in its first NCAA Tournament since 2019. The Tigers defeated Duke 53-51 in February — a result that demonstrates genuine capacity to compete with elite competition in high-pressure games. Senior guard Mia Moore, averaging 13.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 4.6 assists, is a versatile enough offensive creator to make early minutes uncomfortable for a South Carolina defense that has not yet found its March rhythm.
Southern Cal arrives without Juju Watkins, whose ACL injury has shaped the Trojans’ entire season narrative. Freshman Jazzy Davidson, averaging 17.6 points, has been exceptional in an extraordinarily difficult individual circumstance. Both teams are dramatically different from the November versions South Carolina dispatched convincingly — but neither, on current evidence, is equipped to beat a fully operational Gamecock program at home in the NCAA Tournament.
This is the Gamecocks’ home floor for the final time this season. Colonial Life Arena, 18,000 fans, national television — South Carolina has been here before. The second round clears the way to Sacramento.
Sweet 16: Oklahoma — The Unfinished Business Game
The most emotionally loaded potential matchup in South Carolina’s bracket arrives in Sacramento, where No. 4 Oklahoma could be waiting in the Sweet 16. The Sooners are the only team that defeated the Gamecocks in SEC play — a 94-82 overtime loss on January 22nd that remains the single most painful result of South Carolina’s otherwise dominant conference season.
The details of that game have not faded. Freshman guard Aaliyah Chavez scored 15 of her 26 points in overtime to personally dismantle the Gamecocks’ fourth-quarter lead. Madina Okot managed just three-of-nine shooting for six points against Oklahoma star Raegan Beers, who shot eight-of-nine for 18 points in one of the most efficient individual performances against South Carolina all season.
South Carolina addressed that loss quickly — beating Vanderbilt 103-74 three days later and never looking back. Many fans had hoped for a rematch in the SEC Tournament, but Oklahoma was eliminated 112-78 by LSU before that meeting could materialize. The bracket has now arranged what the SEC Tournament denied: a potential Sweet 16 meeting with the program that owns South Carolina’s only regular-season conference blemish.
If Okot can impose her will on Beers the second time — and the Gamecocks can prevent Chavez from finding overtime magic on a neutral floor — the Sweet 16 result should look very different from January. South Carolina’s motivation for this game needs no manufacturing.
Upset watch: No. 5 Michigan State could defeat No. 4 Oklahoma in the second round, removing the revenge narrative entirely and replacing it with a Spartan team that plays connected, physical basketball.
Elite Eight: Iowa — The Rematch Two Years in the Making
The most historically significant potential matchup in the entire bracket sits in the Elite Eight, where No. 2 seed Iowa could be waiting for a showdown that would reprise the most-watched championship game in the history of women’s college basketball.
South Carolina defeated the Hawkeyes in the 2024 national championship — the game that capped the Gamecocks’ historic 38-0 undefeated season and sent Caitlin Clark to the WNBA as the No. 1 overall pick. Two years later, the program looks significantly different on both sides. Coach Lisa Bluder retired alongside Clark’s departure, and Jan Jensen has led the rebuilt Hawkeyes to at least 23 wins in each of her first two seasons — a development that speaks to the organizational stability Iowa has maintained through a massive transition.
Iowa’s current centerpiece is sophomore center Ava Heiden, a 6-foot-4 interior presence averaging 17.4 points and 7.3 rebounds who has scored 21 or more points in five of her last ten games. Senior Hannah Stuelke — who scored 11 points in the 2024 title game loss as a sophomore — has grown into a 13.4-point, 8.5-rebound-per-game contributor whose matchup against Joyce Edwards would be the game’s defining physical battle.
Transfer Chazadi “Chit-Chat” Wright, averaging 12.3 points and 4.6 assists and ranking fifth nationally in three-point shooting at 45.2%, gives Iowa a perimeter creation dimension that did not exist in the 2024 championship game version of this team. Iowa’s collective three-point shooting ranks 14th nationally at 36.2% — slightly below South Carolina’s 37.1% mark — suggesting two teams with comparable perimeter efficiency and potentially similar offensive rhythm.
The Elite Eight rematch is the game the bracket is pointing toward. It would be the most-anticipated women’s basketball regional final in years.
Upset watch: No. 3 TCU, led by Olivia Miles, could defeat No. 2 Iowa in the Sweet 16 — removing the championship game rematch and replacing it with a Horned Frogs team that Raven Johnson’s defensive pressure is ideally suited to neutralize.
Final Four: UConn — The Program That Stands Between South Carolina and History
ESPN gives UConn a 48% chance of winning the national championship — the single largest probability assigned to any program in the field, and a figure that reflects the Huskies’ extraordinary season. UConn enters the tournament at 34-0, the defending national champions, and the program that handed South Carolina two of its four losses last season.
A South Carolina-UConn Final Four matchup in Phoenix would be the defining game of the women’s college basketball era — two dynasties, both fully operational, meeting on the sport’s largest stage with a national championship game berth at stake. Staley’s program has never beaten UConn in a tournament setting. The 2025-26 Gamecocks, with their defensive infrastructure, senior leadership, and championship experience, represent the most credible threat to that streak.
The Final Four tips off April 3 in Phoenix. Between now and then, South Carolina must navigate four more games — each one progressively more demanding than the last.
The Prediction
South Carolina makes it to Phoenix. The bracket is favorable through the first two rounds, the Oklahoma revenge game provides maximum motivation in Sacramento, and the potential Iowa Elite Eight matchup is winnable for a team with this program’s championship pedigree and defensive identity.
What happens in Phoenix will be determined by how well this team executes the principles Dawn Staley has been installing since October — and whether the version of South Carolina that shows up on April 3rd is the one that has been building toward this moment all season.
Everything points toward Phoenix. The road there runs through Columbia, Sacramento, and every opponent ambitious enough to believe they can stop it.
South Carolina NCAA Tournament Schedule:
- First Round: Saturday, March 21 | 1:00 p.m. ET | Colonial Life Arena | ABC
- Second Round: Monday, March 23 | Colonial Life Arena
- Sweet 16/Elite Eight: Sacramento, Calif. | March 27-30
- Final Four: April 3 & 5 | Phoenix, Ariz.**
