The field is set in Sacramento. Here’s a deep dive into what promises to be one of the most compelling regionals of the 2025 NCAA Women’s Tournament.
The Teams
#1 South Carolina — The Unstoppable Force
Tournament path: defeated #16 Southern 103-34 | defeated #9 Southern Cal 101-61
History vs. regional field: Oklahoma (2-4), TCU (1-0), Virginia (3-3)
To say the Gamecocks cruised through the first two rounds is an understatement — it would be more accurate to say they steamrolled. South Carolina posted its largest tournament win ever against Southern, then turned around and handed USC its worst loss of the entire season. Those weren’t just wins; they were statements.
Dawn Staley’s program hasn’t needed to show anything close to its ceiling yet, and that’s what makes this team so dangerous. Every round of the tournament stands on its own, but the numbers and the eye test tell the same story: South Carolina has looked the strongest of the four teams remaining in Sacramento. The Gamecocks are chasing their sixth consecutive Final Four, which would be the second-longest streak in the history of the sport — a remarkable institutional achievement that provides enormous additional motivation.
The one vulnerability worth noting? Oklahoma. The Sooners are the only team in the regional with a winning head-to-head record against South Carolina (4-2), including a victory in the SEC this past January that handed the Gamecocks their only regular-season conference loss. This rematch carries real weight.
#4 Oklahoma — The Team That’s Already Beaten South Carolina
Tournament path: defeated #13 Idaho 89-59 | defeated #5 Michigan State 77-71
History vs. regional field: South Carolina (4-2), TCU (30-11), Virginia (2-0)
Oklahoma held off a strong Michigan State push in a game that never got any flow because of fouls. It was a grind, not a showcase, but winning ugly in March is still winning. That result was the Sooners’ best win since upsetting South Carolina in late January — and now they get another shot at the Gamecocks.
The 4-2 series advantage over South Carolina is the most telling number in Oklahoma’s profile. These are not a team that is intimidated by the moment or by the opponent. Raegan Beers, playing in what may be her final NCAA run, gives the Sooners a legitimate interior presence capable of disrupting what South Carolina does best. If Oklahoma can control the foul situation and find offensive rhythm early, an upset is not a fantasy — it’s a genuine possibility.
#3 TCU — Brilliant and Baffling
Tournament path: defeated #14 UC San Diego 86-40 | defeated #6 Washington 62-59 (OT)
History vs. regional field: Virginia (0-1), Oklahoma (11-30), South Carolina (0-1)
TCU has looked both dominant and shaky at different times in the tournament, which could also apply to the Horned Frogs’ entire season — and that duality is precisely what makes them so hard to evaluate. Against UC San Diego, they looked like a team capable of making a deep run. Against Washington, they needed overtime and the heroics of Olivia Miles just to survive.
And what heroics they were. Miles is averaging a triple-double in the tournament, a stat line that belongs in a different sport. Her playmaking, vision, and competitive will kept TCU alive when the Avery Howell-led Huskies threatened to end their run. Miles is also playing in what appears to be her final college tournament, adding emotional stakes to every possession she’s on the floor.
The Horned Frogs’ series records against their regional opponents tell a complicated story. They’re 0-1 against both Virginia and South Carolina, and a historically lopsided 11-30 against Oklahoma. The path is difficult — but Miles changes the calculus of any game she’s in.
#10 Virginia — The Cinderella Nobody Saw Coming
Tournament path: defeated #10 Arizona State (First Four) | defeated #7 Georgia 82-73 | defeated #2 Iowa 83-76 (2OT)
History vs. regional field: TCU (1-0), Oklahoma (0-2), South Carolina (3-3)
Virginia is this year’s Cinderella team, even if the Cavaliers are an ACC program rather than a mid-major. That distinction matters less than what they’ve actually accomplished: three wins in six days — over Arizona State, Georgia, and Iowa — culminating in the biggest upset of the tournament when they toppled the second-seeded Hawkeyes in double overtime.
The Cavaliers hadn’t made the Sweet 16 since 2000 before this run, a 25-year drought that makes this moment genuinely historic for the program. Kymora Johnson has emerged from relative anonymity into one of the tournament’s signature performers, becoming a household name in real time.
Virginia’s path in the Sweet 16 is steep — they face TCU, a team with more star power and tournament experience. But a squad that just beat Iowa in double overtime has proven it cannot be dismissed on paper.
The Stories Worth Watching
The Rematch
The headline matchup writes itself. Oklahoma handed South Carolina its only regular-season SEC loss and now, three rounds into March, the Sooners get a do-over in the setting where the stakes couldn’t be higher. South Carolina will be motivated. Oklahoma already knows it can win.
The Cinderella
After widespread hand-wringing about the absence of bracket-busting runs in either tournament, Virginia delivered. The Cavaliers became the first women’s First Four team ever to advance to the Sweet 16 — a milestone that reframes the entire conversation about parity in the women’s game.
Legacy Runs
Beyond the bracket implications, this regional is thick with swan songs. Raven Johnson and Ta’Niya Latson at South Carolina, Raegan Beers at Oklahoma, and Olivia Miles at TCU are all potentially playing the final chapters of their college careers. That layer of narrative gives every possession additional texture.
The Sacramento Schedule
| Round | Dates |
|---|---|
| Sweet 16 | March 27–28 |
| Elite Eight | March 29–30 |
Friday, March 27
- UCLA vs. Minnesota — 7:30 PM ET
- Duke vs. LSU — 10:00 PM ET
Saturday, March 28
- #1 South Carolina vs. #4 Oklahoma — 5:00 PM ET
- #3 TCU vs. #10 Virginia — 7:30 PM ET
Sunday, March 29 — 3:00 PM ET
Monday, March 30 — 9:00 PM ET
The Other Side of the Bracket
The Sacramento 2 region provides its own compelling rematch narrative. LSU and Duke met earlier this season, with the Tigers winning 93-77 in Durham — a result that dropped the Blue Devils to a dismal 3-6 at the time.
What followed was one of the more impressive in-season turnarounds in recent memory: Duke won 17 straight games. It is fair to say these aren’t the same teams they were back then, and Duke would like nothing more than a revenge win to prove this version of Duke is the real version.
The other first round story in this region came courtesy of Minnesota. Despite being the four seed, it was a bit of an upset when Amaya Battle hit a 13-foot jumper with one second left to give the Golden Gophers a 65-63 win over Ole Miss. Minnesota, which played crazy fourth quarters all season, overcame an eight-point deficit in the final 10 minutes — vintage Golden Gophers chaos.
Minnesota now faces heavily favored fellow Big Ten member UCLA, which beat the Gophers 76-58 at Williams Arena back in January. Whether Minnesota’s fourth-quarter magic can overcome that talent gap is the defining question for that half of the bracket.
