PHOENIX — The rematch is here. One year after UConn ended South Carolina’s championship reign with an 82-59 victory in Tampa, the two programs meet again — this time in the Final Four, with everything on the line once more.
The Gamecocks enter as 6.5-point underdogs according to BetMGM, with a moneyline of +260 against UConn’s -325. The oddsmakers believe in UConn’s undefeated season. South Carolina believes the number is wrong.
The Setup
South Carolina (35-3) and UConn (38-0) tip off Friday, April 3 at 7 p.m. ET from Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix on ESPN. The winner advances to Sunday’s national championship game against either UCLA or Texas. For South Carolina, a victory would mean three consecutive title game appearances. For UConn, it would be another step toward completing a perfect season.
The spread and moneyline tell the story of how the broader basketball world views this matchup — UConn is a heavy favorite, and their undefeated record commands respect. But a 6.5-point line also acknowledges something important: South Carolina is not a team you can dismiss. The Gamecocks have outscored their four NCAA Tournament opponents by 161 points this season. They are not a feel-good underdog story. They are a program that believes, with genuine evidence, that it can win this game.
Why South Carolina Can Win
The analytical case for a Gamecocks upset rests on one central argument: this is a fundamentally different team than the one that lost by 23 in Tampa.
Last year, Staley was operating without a true center. This year she has Madina Okot — 6-foot-6, averaging 13.2 points and 10.8 rebounds, a player who changes the geometry of every defensive scheme UConn prepares. Last year, the Gamecocks did not have Ta’Niya Latson’s secondary scoring or Agot Makeer’s defensive disruption. And last year, Joyce Edwards was a freshman coming off the bench. This year she is averaging 19.7 points and playing the best basketball of her life.
Lulu Kesin’s prediction: South Carolina 66, UConn 60. “South Carolina will beat UConn because they have more and better scoring options than last year. Joyce Edwards, Raven Johnson and Tessa Johnson are having career years. Plus the addition of Madina Okot, Ta’Niya Latson and Agot Makeer will help the Gamecocks match the Huskies shot for shot.”
Why UConn’s Path Matters — In Both Directions
UConn is 38-0 and has not lost since February 2025. That record commands enormous respect. But it also raises a legitimate question that the oddsmakers cannot fully price in: what happens when a team that has cruise-controlled through most of its schedule suddenly faces the most difficult game it has played all season?
Tia Reid’s prediction: South Carolina 64, UConn 63. “Although it hasn’t seemed to matter much yet this tournament, UConn’s lack of tough games during the regular season could come back to bite the Huskies. This will be their most difficult game by far, and they may not be equipped for it, having cruised through nearly every other game on their schedule.”
Both predictions land in the same place — South Carolina wins — but through different analytical lenses. One argues the Gamecocks have simply built a better team. The other argues UConn’s road to Phoenix has not prepared them for what Friday night will bring. Together, they form a coherent case that the spread may be telling us more about reputation than reality.
South Carolina vs UConn odds, spread, lineOdds courtesy of BetMGM as of April 2.Spread: South Carolina +6.5Over/under: 135.5Moneyline: South Carolina (+260) | UConn (-325)
How to Watch
| Detail | Info |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, April 3 |
| Time | 7:00 PM ET |
| Location | Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix |
| TV | ESPN |
| Streaming | Fubo (free trial available) |
| Announcers | Ryan Ruocco, Rebecca Lobo, Holly Rowe |
| Rules Analyst | Dee Kantner |
South Carolina is 6.5 points behind on paper. They have been here before — doubted, motivated, and dangerous. Dawn Staley has never lost a national championship game until last year. She has spent every day since making sure it does not happen again.
Friday night in Phoenix, we find out if the number was right.
