Big picture
After Week 9 of the 2025 season, On3 has released its latest bowl-and-playoff projections. The postseason field continues to evolve — driven by upsets, conference standings, and playoff-expansion mechanics. The update covers:
- A 12-team playoff bracket (with first-round games at campus sites, quarterfinals hosted by traditional bowls)
- Full predicted matchups for bowl games across the landscape
- Particular focus on alteration in playoff seeding and the ripple effects of major losses.
Key playoff projections & what they mean
Some of the most important takeaways from the update:
- The expectation is that the playoff will consist of 12 teams, with the top four seeds receiving byes. (On3)
- A number of undefeated or one-loss teams remain in control of their destiny, but the margin for error is shrinking — especially in major conferences.
- For instance, after its first loss of the season, Ole Miss Rebels (6-1) still keep a path to the playoff … but their margin has tightened. (On3)
- On3’s full bowl projections reflect how these playoff placements are expected to trickle down into major bowls, “mid-tier” bowls and beyond.
Highlighted team: Ole Miss
Ole Miss’s loss to Georgia Bulldogs (43-35 in Athens) has shifted their trajectory. (On3)
Here’s how On3 reports their projection standing:
- They currently project Ole Miss as a likely first‐round playoff team (variously seeded around 7 or 8) vs. teams like Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets or BYU Cougars depending on model. (On3)
- But there’s an acknowledgement: losing the Georgia game was a significant blow, as it reduced their buffer for error in the final stretch. (On3)
- Also noted: Their remaining schedule includes one more ranked opponent — a chance to regain footing and strengthen their playoff case. (On3)
Bowl matchups: What to watch
While On3’s article lists the full bowl slate, a few notable pieces:
- The major bowls (e.g., Rose Bowl, Sugar Bowl, etc.) serve as quarterfinal hosts under the 12-team bracket model. (On3)
- Teams that don’t make the playoff still have bowl placements that reflect both conference hierarchy and performance.
- Because of the playoff expansion, the stakes for “making or missing” the playoff field are higher than in past seasons.
What it means going forward
- Teams with undefeated or one-loss records still hold strong positioning — but near-losses or losses to lesser teams can be critical.
- Conference play and strength of schedule remain extremely important — not just to win, but to win convincingly.
- Bowl projections now are useful for fans, but the projections will keep shifting weekly as more games are played and results come in.
- For cutoff teams and “bubble” teams (especially in major conferences), the next few weeks are high-leverage.
Final thoughts
The Week 9 update from On3 signals that while the major favorites remain intact, there’s movement and vulnerability. Ole Miss’s slip, for example, shows how quickly a team’s margin can shrink. The playoff picture is still taking shape and bowl projections give a snapshot of where things stand — but not where they will end up.
