From the various reports on the Where these Gamecocks prospects might like land, These are the findings:
Kymora is choosing between South Carolina, TCU and UCLA
Jordan Lee is choosing between South Carolina and TCU
Oliviyah Edwards is choosing between South Carolina, Louisville and Washington.“ However, a proper Analysis with factors that will decides these player’s next Program Home is below:
A Recruiting Probability Analysis
Kymora Johnson — 65% chance
Factors working FOR South Carolina:
Staley’s connection to Virginia — her alma mater — creates a genuinely emotional pull that TCU and UCLA simply cannot replicate. Johnson just had the best season of her career and her NCAA Tournament heroics suggest she wants a stage big enough to match her abilities. South Carolina offers exactly that: immediate championship contention, national spotlight, and a proven system that develops point guards at an elite level. The campus visit already happened, which signals real interest.
Factors working AGAINST:
UCLA is a major program in her broader California-adjacent recruiting footprint, and the West Coast lifestyle appeal is real. TCU has been quietly aggressive in the portal. The absence of recent news — as the screenshot itself acknowledges — could mean negotiations have stalled or another program has quietly gained ground.
Bottom line: Staley’s UVA connection is the tiebreaker nobody else has. Edge: South Carolina.
Jordan Lee — 72% chance
Factors working FOR South Carolina:
This is now a straight head-to-head between South Carolina and TCU — and that’s a battle Staley historically wins. Lee has played against the Gamecocks seven times and consistently elevated her game in those matchups, which suggests she respects the program deeply. Players who compete hard against a program and then visit it are often drawn by the challenge of joining it. Staley was personally courtside with Lee at USC’s baseball game — that level of personal attention from a Hall of Fame coach matters enormously. The two-team scenario statistically favors the more decorated program.
Factors working AGAINST:
TCU has clearly made a strong enough impression to remain her only other finalist, and Lee’s planned TCU visit suggests genuine interest rather than a courtesy call. If TCU’s pitch includes a more defined role or a closer-to-home feel, that could tip things.
Bottom line: Two-horse race, and South Carolina has the stronger horse. Edge: South Carolina.
Oliviyah Edwards — 55% chance
Factors working FOR South Carolina:
Edwards visited South Carolina and was spotted at the baseball game with Staley personally — the same high-touch recruiting approach used with Lee. She was originally in South Carolina’s top six before committing to Tennessee, meaning the relationship predates this recruitment cycle entirely. Staley has had months to rebuild that bond since Tennessee’s release. The Gamecocks also already have Jerzy Robinson’s class assembled, which gives Edwards a ready-made peer group.
Factors working AGAINST:
This is the most volatile of the three situations. Washington represents a home-state pull that is psychologically powerful for any recruit — returning home after a public commitment fallout can feel like the safest, most comfortable choice. Louisville is a rising program that shouldn’t be underestimated. Edwards has now been through one high-profile commitment that unraveled, which may make her more cautious and deliberate — and less likely to simply follow the biggest brand name.
Bottom line: Competitive three-way race. South Carolina leads, but the margin is the slimmest of the group. Edge: Slight South Carolina lean.
Summary Table
| Prospect | Final Schools | SC Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kymora Johnson | SC, TCU, UCLA | 65% |
| Jordan Lee | SC, TCU | 72% |
| Oliviyah Edwards | SC, Louisville, Washington | 55% |
Landing all three would be a seismic offseason. Landing even two would cement South Carolina as the runaway favorite heading into 2025-26. The odds, on balance, favor Staley — but in recruiting, nothing is official until the ink dries.
