Five Things That Will Decide the National Championship: South Carolina vs. UCLA

PHOENIX — Sunday’s national championship game between South Carolina and UCLA is the culmination of a season that has produced extraordinary basketball, unforgettable moments, and two programs that have earned the right to compete for everything. Here is what will actually determine who cuts down the nets.


Experience vs. Inexperience: The Championship Stage Is Different

South Carolina is playing in its sixth consecutive Final Four and fourth championship game in five years. UCLA is playing in its first. That gap is real, and both coaches acknowledge it — though they assess it differently.

Staley has lived the contrast personally. She remembers what her program’s first Final Four in 2015 felt like compared to the second in 2017, when they won the championship.

“The first is always special. It’s always special to get here, to exhale,” Staley said. “I think Cori and UCLA, because they were here last year, you really have some type of expectations of the little bit of prep time that you have. For us, 2017, we won it. I’m hoping that’s not the same for UCLA on Sunday.”

The implication is pointed. South Carolina’s first championship came in their second title game. UCLA is in their first. Staley has seen this movie before.

Cori Close, however, offered an honest and compelling counter-argument. Last year’s Final Four appearance, she said, was reactive. This year’s is anticipatory — and the difference has been tangible in how her program prepared.

“I definitely think last year felt like we were reacting to everything, not anticipating,” Close said. “Whereas now that we have been a part of this, it just was a totally different planning experience. I felt like we were able to be more strategic in how we put our players in positioning to be successful. They were able to anticipate — this is what you have to bring, this is what you have to do. You just think that makes all the difference in the world.”

Both coaches are right. The experience gap is real. And UCLA has partially closed it by having been here before, even once. Sunday will determine which assessment proved more accurate.

As for the most recent meeting — UCLA’s 77-62 win over South Carolina in Westwood on November 24, 2024, which snapped the Gamecocks’ 43-game winning streak — Tessa Johnson offered the definitive perspective on its relevance.

“The only thing I remember is the loss. That doesn’t matter. That was last year. What matters is how well we’re playing right now. Both teams are different and grew.”


Battling Betts: The Game’s Central Matchup

Lauren Betts is the most challenging individual assignment South Carolina has faced all season — and the Gamecocks know it. The 6-foot-7 two-time All-American and two-time Big Ten Player of the Year is averaging 22.4 points in this tournament, up significantly from her 17.2 regular season average. She has elevated as the stakes have risen, which is the hallmark of elite players.

The challenge is not just containing her — it is doing so without compromising the defensive structure against the shooters around her. Foul her, and she goes to the line. Double her, and she finds Gianna Kneepkens (42.9% from three) or Kiki Rice or Gabriela Jaquez in open space. Single-cover her, and you are asking Madina Okot to win a one-on-one battle against the best center in college basketball.

Joyce Edwards articulated the realistic standard South Carolina should hold themselves to.

“It’s hard. She’s 6-7, she finishes really well around the basket. It’s just being physical without fouling, trying to push her off her spots, contest all her shots. She’s going to hit some — you’re not going to keep an All-American to zero points the whole game.”

The goal, then, is not elimination but disruption. Make her work harder than she is accustomed to. Force catches farther from the basket. Contest every shot. And rebound — because if Betts gets second chances, the game becomes unmanageable.

Ta’Niya Latson offered the most direct pre-game instruction for the post players facing her.

“Do your work early, don’t be afraid of her size. Push her off her spots. Get into her body, but you’ve got to rebound. Lauren Betts is 6-7 — you can’t teach that, but you can work hard, and I think our posts are going to do that tomorrow.”

Okot played only 20 minutes against UConn because Staley went small. Against Betts, she will play significantly more — and she enters Sunday fresh, having been conserved in the semifinal. Tessa Johnson’s message to her was simple and direct.

“Just keep doing what she’s doing. Be dominant. Stay poised. We have her back no matter what.”


More Makeer: The X-Factor Who Keeps Delivering

Agot Makeer has earned her own breakout interview room for Saturday’s media availability — an honor typically reserved for starters, and a recognition of just how significantly she has elevated South Carolina’s ceiling in this tournament.

Her Final Four numbers against UConn: 14 points, four rebounds, two assists. Her tournament averages: 14.6 points, 3.0 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 2.4 steals per game. She is, by any measure, the most pleasant surprise of the entire NCAA Tournament — a freshman who arrived at South Carolina after a delayed season of injuries and is now performing like a veteran on the sport’s biggest stage.

When asked whether this hot streak is going to end, Makeer’s response was unguarded and genuine.

“I mean, I hope not!” she said, laughing. “Especially, I hope not tomorrow.”

Against UCLA’s perimeter shooters and ball-handlers, Makeer’s length and instincts in passing lanes will be as important as her offense. She has the wingspan and the quick-twitch anticipation to disrupt Charlisse Leger-Walker and force turnovers in transition — which is exactly the kind of fast-break opportunity South Carolina needs to offset Betts’s interior dominance.


Scouting the Bruins: The System Behind the Star

Betts is UCLA’s best player, but Cori Close has built a roster that is specifically constructed to make stopping Betts feel impossible. The personnel around her are not role players — they are legitimate offensive threats who demand defensive attention in their own right.

The return of Charlisse Leger-Walker from a torn ACL has been the structural key. With Leger-Walker handling primary ball-handling duties, Kiki Rice has been liberated to become a scorer — her 15.1 points per game is a career high. The perimeter shooting that surrounds Betts is formidable: Kneepkens at 42.9%, Gabriela Jaquez at 38.7%, Angela Dugalić at 33.0%, Leger-Walker at 35.3%.

Betts can read defenses and deliver the pass to the open shooter before the rotation arrives. She does not need to dominate to be decisive — she just needs to force one wrong defensive decision, and the Bruins have the personnel to punish it.

The tactical key to beating UCLA lies in disruption and pace. The Bruins struggle when opponents eliminate early shot-clock opportunities and force them into extended half-court possessions. They are not at their best when the game slows down and they have to manufacture scoring rather than flowing into it. South Carolina’s defensive identity — forcing turnovers, contesting every shot, running their own transition offense — is the exact antidote to what UCLA does best.

Execute that game plan for forty minutes, and the Gamecocks are national champions. Fail to sustain it, and Betts and her shooters will make them pay.


The Bottom Line

South Carolina has been here before. They know what Sunday feels like — the crowd, the pressure, the weight of a single elimination game for a national title. UCLA is learning it in real time, even with last year’s Final Four as partial preparation.

The Gamecocks have Okot, where last year they did not. They have Makeer, who did not exist in this form six months ago. They have Joyce Edwards, who has broken a 47-year scoring record and grown from a freshman bench piece to a program cornerstone. And they have Dawn Staley, who has been in this position four times and won three of them.

Everything points to South Carolina. The only thing left is to play the game.

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