South Carolina just lost the national championship game to UCLA. They then went out and potentially built a better team. And yet, Las Vegas still won’t fully commit to crowning the Gamecocks as next year’s favorites. Here’s why that gap between perception and odds tells a fascinating story about the 2026-27 women’s basketball season before it even tips off.
The Context: A Painful Loss, Then a Powerful Response
When UCLA defeated South Carolina in the 2026 national championship game, the Bruins claimed their first title while the Gamecocks were left to regroup. Almost immediately, the first wave of 2026-27 championship odds dropped — and UConn, who South Carolina had soundly beaten in the semifinals, was installed as the favorite across BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, and FanDuel.
That initial line felt more like a reflexive lean on UConn’s brand than a true reflection of roster reality. And what happened next proved exactly that.
The Moves That Changed Everything
South Carolina didn’t sulk. The Gamecocks attacked the offseason with precision, adding Texas guard Jordan Lee and third-ranked freshman Oliviyah Edwards through the portal and roster additions — then received perhaps the biggest boost of all when Ashlyn Watkins, a dynamic force who sat out the entire previous season, was confirmed to be returning to the fold.
For the broader college basketball world, those moves were more than enough. Pundits and analysts widely declared South Carolina the clear frontrunner for next year’s title. The Gamecocks appeared to have addressed every conceivable weakness while retaining the core of an already elite program.
Vegas, however, responded with measured — but meaningful — movement.
Breaking Down the Odds Shift
The numbers tell a compelling story of a program closing the gap in real time.
At BetMGM, South Carolina moved from +400 to +300, while UConn slipped from +175 to +225 — a clear signal that money and market confidence is flowing toward the Gamecocks. The gap between the two programs narrowed significantly, though UConn still holds the edge.
Caesars Sportsbook told a similar tale. UConn drifted from +180 to +230 as South Carolina surged from +400 all the way to +260 — the most aggressive single-book movement outside of FanDuel.
The most dramatic shift, however, came from FanDuel, where South Carolina rocketed from +470 to +250 — pulling dead even with UConn (+250) to become co-favorites. That’s a staggering swing that reflects just how seriously the market is now taking what Beamer’s staff assembled this offseason. Meanwhile, Southern Cal — which started as high as second on some books — quietly slipped to third across the board despite minimal odds movement, a casualty of South Carolina’s surge rather than any decline of their own.
Texas remains the consensus fourth-place contender across all three books, cementing a projected Final Four picture that looks remarkably similar to last season’s.
What Vegas Is Really Saying
The refusal to fully anoint South Carolina as the outright favorite is not an insult — it’s a reflection of genuine uncertainty in what projects to be one of the most competitive women’s college basketball seasons in recent memory. UConn’s pedigree, coaching, and roster continuity command respect regardless of offseason storylines.
But the direction of the money is unmistakable. South Carolina has gone from a team that was beaten in the championship game to a program that has — by nearly every analytical measure — improved its roster. The fact that FanDuel has already made them co-favorites suggests that if the Gamecocks add even one more significant piece before the season tips, the remaining books may have no choice but to follow.
The Bottom Line
Vegas may not be ready to hand South Carolina the trophy yet. But the oddsmakers are no longer willing to pretend the Gamecocks aren’t right there. From +470 to co-favorites on one book, and rapidly closing on the others, the market is sending a clear message:
The Gamecocks are coming — and UConn knows it.
