COLUMBIA — Looking at South Carolina’s upcoming stretch might make even the most optimistic fan uneasy. The Gamecocks’ next five matchups are brutal, all against opponents currently ranked in the AP Top 15: No. 13 LSU, No. 5 Oklahoma, No. 10 Alabama, No. 4 Ole Miss and No. 6 Texas A&M.
The schedule eases up with home games against Coastal Carolina and Clemson to close the regular season, but the road to those final two contests won’t be easy.
Asked about the gauntlet ahead, and how he plans to keep his team locked in on the next challenge rather than the next month, head coach Shane Beamer showed no hesitation.
“As a competitor, you want that. And that’s life in the SEC, man,” Beamer said. “But at the end of the day, in my mind, those teams have to play us, too.”
The reality, though, is stark. Sitting at 3-2 overall and 1-2 in SEC play, South Carolina would need to win out for just the fifth 10-win season in school history. More realistically, it needs at least three more victories to secure bowl eligibility for a second consecutive year.
So, which games give the Gamecocks their best chances? Here’s a breakdown, starting with the most likely wins based on ESPN analytics.
1. vs. Coastal Carolina (Nov. 22)
Win probability: 95.6%
This one looks like a lock. Coastal Carolina has struggled mightily, sitting at 2-2 with a 41-point loss to Virginia and a shutout at the hands of East Carolina. Unlike some of their recent squads, this Chanticleers team isn’t built to push South Carolina. Anything less than a comfortable Gamecock victory would be shocking.
2. vs. Clemson (Nov. 29)
Win probability: 69.9%
It feels unusual to rank Clemson as a “winnable” game this high. After all, the home team hasn’t taken the Palmetto Bowl since 2018, and both of Beamer’s wins over the Tigers came as an underdog.
But Clemson is reeling. At 1-3, the Tigers’ defense — loaded with NFL talent — has been porous, and their offense looks completely lost. Compared to the SEC opponents South Carolina has left, Clemson is far less intimidating.
3. at LSU (Oct. 11)
Win probability: 29.8%
LSU’s 4-1 record looks better on paper than in reality. Their lone loss came against Ole Miss, and their four wins are against Clemson, Louisiana Tech, Florida, and Southeastern Louisiana — not exactly a murderer’s row.
Offensively, LSU has issues. QB Garrett Nussmeier hasn’t lived up to expectations, and the Tigers rank near the bottom of the SEC in rushing offense. The challenge, of course, is Death Valley at night, where LSU rarely loses. Still, there’s a real shot here.
4. vs. Oklahoma (Oct. 18)
Win probability: 41.3%
Oklahoma’s status hinges on the health of quarterback John Mateer, who recently had hand surgery. His availability remains uncertain. Even without him, though, the Sooners’ defense has been dominant, giving up just over eight points per game and averaging four sacks.
5. at Texas A&M (Nov. 15)
Win probability: 29.2%
The Aggies haven’t been flashy, but they’ve proven they can win in multiple ways, including a 41-40 shootout at Notre Dame and a grind-it-out win at Auburn. Balanced and steady, Texas A&M poses a serious threat — and history doesn’t help South Carolina’s chances, as the Gamecocks are 0-5 all-time at Kyle Field.
6. vs. Alabama (Oct. 25)
Win probability: 21.7%
Watching Alabama take down Georgia last week made it hard to envision South Carolina pulling off an upset. The Crimson Tide are stronger than last year, with improvements at both quarterback and offensive line.
One potential silver lining? Alabama hasn’t shown it can contain mobile quarterbacks. Florida State’s Thomas Castellanos ran for 78 yards in their opener without being sacked. That could give South Carolina some hope.
7. at Ole Miss (Nov. 1)
Win probability: 19.8%
Since turning to QB Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss has become one of the SEC’s most explosive offenses. Their defense struggles against the run, allowing over 163 yards per game, but South Carolina has yet to prove it can consistently establish the ground game. That mismatch makes this the toughest ask on the board.
Bottom line: South Carolina faces one of the most unforgiving stretches in college football. As Beamer put it, “those teams have to play us, too,” but the Gamecocks will need to pull off some major upsets just to stay in the postseason conversation.
