They came into March as the team everyone feared most. They nearly left as the most stunning upset victim in NCAA Tournament history.
No. 1 overall seed Duke survived a genuine scare Thursday, escaping with a 71-65 victory over No. 16 seed Siena in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament — a result that was far from comfortable, far from expected, and far from the statement performance the Blue Devils needed to send a message to the rest of the bracket.
Cameron Boozer led the way with 22 points and 13 rebounds. But the box score barely scratches the surface of how close this game came to becoming the most talked-about moment in college basketball history.
Down 11 at the Half — and Still Thinking It Was Easy
The most damning detail of Duke’s afternoon didn’t come from the scoreboard. It came from forward Maliq Brown’s halftime interview with CBS Sports’ Tracy Wolfson — a moment of candor that said everything about the Blue Devils’ mental approach heading into the game.
“We thought it was going to be a cakewalk going into this game,” Brown admitted at halftime. “We aren’t playing our basketball.”
That kind of admission, delivered publicly while trailing a No. 16 seed by 11 points at the break, is the sort of thing that ends tournament runs — and nearly did. Duke trailed by as many as 13 points during the opening minutes of the second half, the largest deficit the Blue Devils had faced all season.
The numbers surrounding Duke’s predicament were historic in the worst possible way. Although it’s not uncommon for a No. 1 seed to trail at halftime to a No. 16 seed — it has happened 12 previous times — the 11-point deficit was the largest of any such instance. Duke was, in real time, setting records they had no desire to set.
Siena Ran Out of Gas — But Not Before Making History
Credit must be paid where it is due. Siena was not a fluke. The Saints came prepared, played with composure, and pushed the tournament’s most feared program to the absolute brink. Siena played its five starters all 40 minutes — a testament to the program’s commitment and belief that they could pull off what would have been one of the biggest upsets in NCAA Tournament history.
Duke trailed in the game for a total of nearly 30 minutes before a bucket by Isaiah Evans with 4:25 remaining gave his team the lead back for good. Before that, Duke hadn’t led since it was 10-8 in the opening minutes of the game.
In the end, the physical toll of playing without substitutions finally caught up with the Saints. But their performance — against a team installed as the tournament favorite, as a 27.5-point underdog — will not be forgotten quickly.
A Pattern That Should Concern Duke
What makes Thursday’s near-catastrophe more alarming is that it didn’t happen in isolation. Duke has been playing with fire this month. The Blue Devils nearly lost in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament against Florida State — it took a missed shot at the buzzer for the Blue Devils to advance. In the ACC title game against Virginia, the Blue Devils trailed in the second half before escaping with a 74-70 win.
During the ACC Tournament, Duke was without starters Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba II — a context that explains some of the inconsistency but doesn’t excuse a team of Duke’s caliber from nearly being eliminated by a No. 16 seed on the sport’s biggest stage.
The Blue Devils tied their largest halftime comeback win in an NCAA Tournament game — 11 points — matching the deficit they overcame against Maryland in the 2001 Final Four. That’s a remarkable historical footnote. It’s also a reminder that surviving near-disasters isn’t the same as resolving them.
What Comes Next
Duke’s reward for surviving? A second-round matchup that promises to be no easier. The Blue Devils will face TCU, a dangerous No. 9 seed coming off a win over Ohio State, on Saturday.
If Thursday was meant to be a wake-up call, Duke received it loudly. The question now is whether the Blue Devils answer it — or whether the complacency that nearly cost them against Siena resurfaces against a team that won’t need to play all 40 minutes on five starters to keep pace.
The Saints ran out of gas in a memorable effort. The Blue Devils are going to need to light a fire underneath them to avoid an embarrassing exit before the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
Cameron Boozer’s 22 points and 13 rebounds kept Duke alive. But talent alone won’t be enough if the mindset doesn’t change.
The cakewalk mentality nearly sent the No. 1 seed home in the first round. In March, that’s a lesson you only get to learn once.
